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(#1151)
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badman (Offline)
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Points: 1076
Default 01-31-2012, 11:16 PM

Fundamental Analysis for January 31, 2012




After another summit 25 European countries made a decision to sign a new fiscal pact. According to this agreement the countries pledge not to spend money in the future.



The statement is not controversial: at least it is clear that there will be no overspendings so far. The commitment of the 3% deficit to GDP, signed at the time, has not found any support.

On the other hand, do these principles mean that the past is no more taking into account? No more spending from now, reasonable decisions and discipline. But who is going to pay for this?

While leaders participate in meetings and discussions approving the treaties that are quite similar, the unemployment rate reaches over 23 million.

There are countries on the brink of bankruptcy that is expected to occur in less than 60 days. But that is not the appropriate topic for discussion.

During the Monday's trading session the situation did not changed much except a very slight recovery of the dollar. The Wall Street shares (the main at least) hardly moved and reached the new low.

In this regard, the Tuesday’s European session was opened with remarkable results. Surprisingly, German retail sales fell 1.4%, which is the key event of the day as Germany is considered the engine of the continent. Therefore, this fact was the reason for significant concerns.

All these facts indicate the high probability of recession in Europe. Germany remains the only country that will avoid this.

Nevertheless, the euro zone again exceeds 1.32 in these times. The main stock exchanges, namely in Frankfurt, London and in Paris, represented by the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and DAX 30 are experiencing the ascending movement and can be considered a hope for some period of time.

On Tuesday the British pound and the euro have slightly increased along with the consumer confidence index in Britain, while the Swiss franc, faithful follower of the euro, also closed the deals at its monthly maximum.

It is necessary to mention that the most of the currencies initiated the upward movement during these last hours of the month, having closed at the same highs that do not correspond with the economic situation of their countries.

Generally, the Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET and the consumer confidence index released by the Conference Board at 10:00 ET is the crucial data for the American session.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1152)
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Default 02-01-2012, 04:03 PM

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 1, 2011

AUD/USD has finished the whole wave from 1.0231 to 1.0687, according to wave count it is impulse wave 3 (colored royal blue in the chart), and now potential corrective wave 4 is developing against the uptrend from 1.0687. Within this wave we have three subwaves (colored red in the chart) - A, B, and potential C. Subwave C will be confirmed when the price breaks below 1.0525 - top of subwave A.
Now the targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0687, and expansions off 1.0687-1.0525-1.0684.
Supports:
- 1.0522 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0513 = .382 retracement
- 1.0459 = .50 ret
- 1.0422 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0405 = .618 ret
However if the price breaks above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525.
Resistances:
- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1153)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-01-2012, 04:04 PM

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 1, 2011

GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). This wave has two subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 119.53. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 120.76 = .50 ret
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price breaks below 119.53 to continue the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-119.53-120.57.
Supports:
- 119.06-04 = confluence area of COP and .618 retracement
- 118.12 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1154)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-02-2012, 04:54 PM

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 2, 2011

AUD/USD broke above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend. Therefore corrective wave 4 (1.0687-1.0525 - colored royal blue in the chart) is over and now we have wave 5 that is developing from 1.0525. Inside this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0569.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0684-1.0569.
Resistances:
- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0826 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0525-1.0756.
Supports:
- 1.0668 = .382 retracement
- 1.0640 = .50 ret
- 1.0613 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-35 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities going short at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1155)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-02-2012, 04:57 PM

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 2, 2011

GBP/JPY has just developed corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart), and now potential impulse wave C is developing from 119.53.
The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.42 = .618 ret
However, if the downmove continues the immediate supports will be Fibnoacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-119.53-120.92.
Supports:
- 119.41 = COP
- 119.04 = .618 ret
- 118.47 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1156)
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Points: 1076
Default 02-02-2012, 07:55 PM

Fundamental Analysis, February 02, 2012




The debt situation in Greece has reached its deadlock even from an optimistic point of view, considering that some investors worry about the future of the euro.



According to the data released by ADP, the number of jobs created across the Atlantic region was lower than expected, but still significantly higher than in previous months.

Friday will become a real trial, as the employment data released by the Labor Department caused significant movements in the USD pairs movement.

With the respective European currencies we can observe the moderate upward trends. Presently the yen stands in the focus as it is approaching again the record high against the dollar. As the Bank of Japan stated before, it will not intervene in the exchange rate or take some emergency measure that prove to be ineffective over time with little impact in early hours.

It is necessary to mention the decreased oil prices. WTI barrel is lower than $ 100 and is trading at 96.83 at the moment. But there is no significant impact on their currencies, namely the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Meanwhile, Gold remains above $ 1740 per ounce, which in turn initiates the upward movemen of the Australian dollar approaching the area of the 1.07 level.

Concerning the time of news release, the weekly unemployment requests, which will be announced at 8:30 EST and the presentation of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress at 10:00, will be the key events for Thursday’s U.S. trading session.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for February 2, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/USD



The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.3108 level indicating an upward trend. It remains in the overbuy zone despite the short-term uptrend breakdown. The weekly pivot line and the moving average of 50 periods are considered the support levels. At these levels SELL-deals are recommended. Otherwise it will be possible to wait until the end of the week: if the pair continues the ascending movement, we can enter the market and gain a profit by making the short-term deals till the second weekly pivot 1.2748 is reached.



On the other hand, the Momentum indicator is in overbought area indicating the bearish signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1157)
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badman (Offline)
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Points: 1076
Default 02-05-2012, 09:13 PM

Fundamental Analysis for February 3, 2012




The recovery of the U.S. economy on Friday has a litmus test in its most sensitive variable: the creation of jobs during the month of January.
According to previous estimates, is expected to have generated about 150,000 jobs last month, a figure much lower than in December, which in any case is subject to revision.
This fact remains, despite its ups and downs, the most important of the month, and takes effect during the coming weeks. The rate of unemployment, which President Obama obsessively fixed his attention, for re-election in November, would be unchanged at 8.5%. Both reports will be published as usual, at 8:30 Eastern.
At 10:00 ISM services will be announced, which could increase this month strongly compared to the previous measurement, endorsing a good number of jobs created, if this indeed is confirmed.
In any case, as we repeat every month, it is always best to wait until the effects dissipate jobs data and the different currency pairs take a definite trend, before entering the market. This type of data often leads to sudden movements in prices, which leveraged markets can have a devastating effect.
Remember this is a market, not a game of chance, and win in the marketplace responds to a good analysis of it, many hours of work, and not a simple riddle of who is right price direction at a given time.
Averaging the European session on Friday, major indexes of the old continent operate with gains of 0.3% on average, while Dow Jones futures show an uptrend in the short term. The same could be confirmed if the data of U.S. employment is positive.
As for currencies, have no relevant movements, as usual in the hours leading up to major reports. The major pairs’ prices have hardly changed since the close of U.S. session on Thursday, and is not expected to change until publication of the jobs report.
To take into account: the Swiss National Bank said, as did the Bank of Japan, who will defend the exchange rate of the franc to 1.20 against the euro as often as necessary. In other words, is imminent intervention of the franc against the euro, and therefore against the dollar. On the side of the BoJ, the situation is similar, and a movement towards 75.55 yen alarms turn ON the intervention. The exchange rate EUR / CHF is 1.2047 at the time, just a few points above the barrier set by the SNB.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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NZD/USD Strong Resistance at 0.8385 (Daily Strategy)






NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar - U.S. dollar pair correlates with the stock markets around the world and the index level of fear marks a sharp decline in investor concerns.

At the technical level we see a marked upward trend, the pair has been detained by the second weekly resistance 0.8385, given that today is a weekend, there are fundamental data on the U.S. economy. It is important to take precautions due to market volatility.


We recommend you sell in (R_2) weekly. with a short-term objective 0.8178, just at the level of the uptrend line.

The Momentum indicator has entered into overbought area, there may be a change in trend.






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1158)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-06-2012, 06:57 AM

EUR/AUD Elliott wave count for February 6, 2012


Market Overview
The EUR/AUD pair is trading in short term bearish channel for last 6 days, Friday's Trading pushed this major to record low to 1.2170 level. Today in the early Asian session we could observe a slight downward movement below the 1.2200 level.We got Retail Sales from Australia report lower then expected today in Asia but market did not react on this news. In case level 1.2165 is passed trough the point 1.2100 will be considered as next support level.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2084 (S2)1.2142 (S1)1.2178 (PP)1.2236 (R1)1.2294 (R2)1.2330 (R3)1.2388

Important News
(AUD)Retail Sales m/m
(AUD)ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
(EUR)Sentix Investor Confidence
(EUR)German Factory Orders m/m

EUR/AUD Elliott Wave Analysis
EUR/AUD pair finish 5 waves down movement in iii wave at 1.2173, And we start 3 corrective waves in iv wave, Wave A finished correction at 1.2228 level and we expect to see soon the end of wave B and start of final C wave in iv wave.Concerning our wave rules and assuming that wave C will be equal to wave A we can project our potential targets with Fibonacci extensions(1.2173-1.228-1.2190) to 1.2242 level. We can use end of wave iii for our stop loss.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.2200 with Stop Loss at 1.2173 and Take Profit at 1.2242 are recommended
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1159)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-06-2012, 06:59 AM

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 6, 2011

From 119.53 GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart). Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B and C (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 120.16.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-120.92-120.16, 120.16-121.16-120.75.

Resistances:

- 121.37 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 121.55 = objective point (OP)
- 121.75 = OP
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.37-41-47 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP) and COP

However, if the downmove continues the immediate supports will be Fibnoacci retracements of 119.53-121.16.

Supports:

- 120.54 = .382 retracement
- 120.35 = .50 ret
- 120.15 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1160)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-06-2012, 07:02 AM

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 6, 2011

From 1.0525 AUD/USD is moving within wave 5 of medium term uptrend (this wave is colored royal blue in the chart). Inside this wave there are A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 1.0671 (colored magenta in the chart). The latter subwave also has its minor waves - they are A and B that is developing from 1.0793 (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0756-1.0671.

Resistances:

- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0814 = COP
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0902 = objective point (OP)

However if the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0525-1.0793.

Supports:

- 1.0691 = .382 retracement
- 1.0659 = .50 ret
- 1.0627 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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