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(#1181)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-22-2012, 05:38 PM

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 22, 2012

AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). The wave is moving from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter - they are A, B, and C (colored orange red in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 1.0749.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0815-1.0679-1.0749, 1.0749-1.0654-1.0699.
Supports:
- 1.0613 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0604-1.0599 = confluence area of two OP's
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0545 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0529 = XOP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0815 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-45 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities of going short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1182)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-22-2012, 05:38 PM

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 22, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have 1, 2, 3, and potential 4th subwave that is developing from 126.77 (colored red in the chart).
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55, 122.55-126.77-125.59.
Resistances:
- 127.23-31-41 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP), objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 128.20 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77.
Supports:
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.19 = .50 ret
- 123.59 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1183)
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Points: 1076
Default 02-23-2012, 12:24 AM

Fundamental Analysis For February 22, 2012




No significant changes are taking place on Wednesday the European session, the currency market.

Except for the euro, which is still without a clear trend, the dollar is taking some strength against other currencies leaders, and stand out in this context its growth against the yen, which fell from 80 units in the last hour minimum value since mid- July.

Of course, the weak yen leads to lose ground against the euro too, which is still slightly firmer against the dollar and pound sterling to a lesser extent, as the low, who has been the same since the beginning of European session.

It is also remarkable the strength that has an ounce of gold, and oil, not yet filled a gap left in the Asian session on Monday, so it does not provide for $ 105.00, but no one is stronger.

At this point there is a growing concern in Europe. It is known dependence of the old continent with imports of oil which do not produce, and recently suspended as a measure of pressure, its commercial ties with Iran.

It is naive to believe that Europe will run out of oil, just because Iran did not send it, and that Iran will stop selling oil. These maneuvers are always speculative, and ultimately seek to increase the price of oil is too old.

For Europe to get the same oil from Iran, just enough that it will sell the crude to a country outside Europe and that Europe will not buy another country, other costs of course. If that was the concern should not be.

Gold also strengthens in these times, and positions with the upward trend in short-term charts, and search the area at $ 1,800. It is known that one ounce not long to go 20 or $ 30, and any shocking news could have that effect these days, something tumultuous markets.

No major reports to be published, the most relevant and was released in Europe, and certainly has not been encouraging, with European exchanges operate down to another day and the Dow Jones index futures to move away, down from the heights Monday, the rest of the day presented with good business opportunities in the short term charts.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.3320 February 22, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)






EUR/USD


The Euro - U.S. Dollar pair, remains without a definite trend, and forming a figure reversal technique, if we see in the picture, the gap opening earlier this week, has not yet been covered. So, that adds strength to our bearish outlook. According to the table pivots, the euro - dollar, is trading below the first resitencia weekly, so we think we could go back at least to 1.3130 or more down to 1.3050.

Therefore, we recommend selling at current price levels, and with a stop loss, a little above the monthly maximum around 1.3320, and our ultimate goal in this bearish strategy, we will place on the 61.8% retracement of fibinacci.

MCD indicator. is in a neutral point showing bearish signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 22, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD


The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair, continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity. We can not discard the possible pullback, which can take place, as almost always happens when a pair breaks its trendline.

Therefore, we can enter selling, only if the pair closes below 1.0610 or we can wait for the pullback expected to happen, and sell the bearish sequence.


The Range Indicator shows overbought signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1184)
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Default 02-23-2012, 05:35 PM

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 23, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 is developing against the uptrend from 126.77. Within this wave we have A, B, and C subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.55.
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62.
Resistances:
- 127.23 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 127.41 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77, 119.53-126.77, and epxansions off 126.77-125.59-126.55, 126.55-125.54-126.06.
Supports:
- 125.37 = objective point (OP)
- 125.05 = OP
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.64 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-50 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1185)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-23-2012, 05:38 PM

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 23, 2012

AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter wave - they are A, and B (colored red) that is now developing from 1.0597.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815.
Supports:
- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0815-1.0597.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1186)
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Points: 1076
Default 02-24-2012, 12:48 AM

Fundamental Analysis For February 23, 2012




Although from the European Commission have been planted gloomy forecasts about the future that awaits many countries of the old continent this year, the euro reached its annual maximum in the beginning of the session.

The occasion is the publication of the German IFO survey, which gathers more than 7000 executives on the business climate in that country, which in turn turns into an index. This value was 109.7 points today, above expectations, and the highest since last July.

This demonstrates the radically different picture presented by members of the eurozone. While Germany is doing better and better, and soon will affect the exchange rate of the euro, countries that follow in economic power began to falter and suffer cuts ratings on their debt, high unemployment rates, bewilderment. And the European periphery is the most suffering, with Greece as a prime example: 5 years of recession, a default disguised in euphemisms and money last minute, and a host of difficulties facing most basic expenses.

But Germany alone is able to support a currency that was responsible for design, build and operate, and that is what you see at these times. Beyond that, as mentioned several times in recent days, the euro has more to lose than to win in the near future, the strength of the first European power is reflected in movements like today.

The rest of the euro currency has followed a more attenuated. The franc, mirror of the single currency was the biggest beneficiary, with the highest since Nov. 14 so far. British pound also managed to take hold above 1.57, and yen positions seems to recover very slowly after the sharp decline in recent days.

The currencies linked to commodities also followed the upward trend, with the Canadian dollar once again breaking the deadlock before the dollar and the Australian aussie following an ounce of gold, which again is very strong, looking for $ 1800 .

Thursday's U.S. session will bring important as data requests per week of unemployment, at 8:30 Eastern, and oil inventories at 10:30.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD Sell Below Trendline, February 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British pound - U. S. Dollar pair, has recovered from the sharp drop that was yesterday, the level of 1.5640. has proved to be strong support, because in four previous sessions the pair has not been able to break this level. the 50-day moving average,supports the strong level of support.

As we can see the yellow box, shows that the pound has been stagnated at range of 230 pips and is trading below its downtrend line short term.

Therefore recommend you sell below the trend line and the stop loss above the second resistance weekly, our short-term goal, it is placed right in the second weekly support around 1.5560 dollars per pound.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD

The Australian dollar - U. S. Dollar pair, following an ounce of gold, which again is very strong, trading at 1.0703 and continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity.

As we see in the graph the autraliano, is preparing a pullback, and entering an area of �‹�‹strong resistance, so we recommend waiting for the daily close, to sell. Believe that all this sharp rise the pair must correct at least to the level of 1.0280 U.S. dollars per Australian dollar.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1187)
insta_poster (Offline)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-27-2012, 08:05 AM

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for February 27, 2012


Market Overview
On Friday the USD/CAD pair was trading within an upward movement. In the early Asian session the major started pushing higher to the 0.9985 level. The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level, therefore during the European session the pair moved to the new daily low 0.9965. In the course of the New York session the pair climbed to new high 1.0000. Today we can observe the continuation of the bullish mood as the price is above the 1.0020 level. Today the pair is expected to test the resistance level 1.0030 before the beginning of the downside movement. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the USA Pending Home Sales m/m that could affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9950 (S2) 0.9964 (S1) 0.9973 (PP) 0.9987 (R1) 1.0001 (R2) 1.0010 (R3) 1.0024

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished the (B) wave of the bigger (2) wave at 0.9953. Presently we can observe the end of (C) wave. According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that the wave (3) is the longest, we can define the potential targets with help of Fibonacci extension (1.0050-0.9906-1.0030) with the first take profit at level 0.9940 (61.8% of wave (1)) and the second take profit at 0.9888 (100% of wave (1)). For stop loss we can use invalidation point in our count at 1.0050

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short position at levels 1.0010 with Stop Loss at 1.0050, Take Profit 1 at 1.0750 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0630 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1188)
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Default 02-27-2012, 08:07 AM

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 27, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also five waves of a still smaller degree (colored magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 125.41.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-126.77-125.41.

Resistances:

- 130.56 = objective point (OP)
- 130.99 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.41-129.71.

Supports:

- 128.07 = .382 retracement
- 127.56 = .50 ret
- 127.05 = .382 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1189)
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Points: 4350
Default 02-27-2012, 08:09 AM

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 27, 2011

AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter wave - they are A, and B that is now developing from 1.0597 (colored magenta in the chart). The latter contains A, and B as well (colored red in the chart).

Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, 1.0597-1.0754, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815, 1.0815-1.0597-1.0754, 1.0754-1.0702-1.0748.

Supports:

- 1.0657 = .618 ret
- 1.0619 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0612 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions of the wave 1.0597-1.0754 and its retracement - the retracement is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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(#1190)
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Default 02-28-2012, 08:49 PM

Fundamental Analysis for February 28, 2012




As Greek default continues to be the object of voting and agreements due to the need of new loan, the rating agencies make attempts no to touch upon its fall.

This game is dangerous as it combines the lack of political will and the veracity of the rating that worsens the credit situation of a country whose poverty is increasing and continuous and reveals the results.

One may wonder how many votes and approval by large majorities are needed to solve this problem. If these votes were given by Germany, no one would doubt them.

The rhythm of stock markets move is influenced by the timid European governments and the fact that their contributors won and lost assets held in incessantly.

While Monday was an inappropriate day, the Tuesday’s European session showed the decrease of the major indexes including the modest losses of the old continent that remained almost unchanged compared to the day before.

The coins follow the same pattern of movement, and most of them are still in very narrow price range, although today they are (at least the European currencies) in a slight short-term uptrend, which could be consolidated during the American session.

These steps were followed by the Canadian dollar, which again strengthened the hand of oil, below the Monday’s high and the Australian dollar, which remained the gold also very strong.

The current data including the durable goods orders, was released at 8:30 Eastern. The key report and the consumer confidence index issued by the Conference Board were released at 10:00 (both in the U.S).

Germany rate of retail inflation is expected to appear soon, though it is necessary to consider that the schedule is not confirmed yet due to the flexibility of the European Central Bank. An increase in inflation in Germany naturally affects the economy and the whole Europe.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD Wave Analysis for February 28, 2012






Wave marking analysis:

After the yesterday’s repulse from the level of the figure 59 that took place during the Pacific session, the GBP/USD pair had lost over 100 pips by the end of the day. The inner wave structure of the ascending part of the trend that was formed on Friday does not seem to be very convincing. This enables the Pound to resume the growth to the targets located near the point 1.5930. At the same time, as it has been mentioned before, the 2nd wave (or the wave B) is likely to transform in more complicated corrective structure which, in turn, is expected to acquire the properties of diagonal triangle.

Targets for the variant with the wave 2 or B (in case it is complicated):
1.5662 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci
1.5581 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave 3 or C:
1.5933 – 261.8% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The formation of the ascending part of the trend within the wave 3 (or wave C) with targets seen at the 1.5933 (equal to 261.8% of Fibonacci) is very likely to resume. The continuous correction is considered as negative factor for the uprising part of the trend. Though it is possible that the ascending part of the trend will turn downwards, the Friday’s movement stimulated the formation of the uprising part of the trend. The renewal of the high of the wave 1 (or wave A) will be confirmed by the formation of the wave 3 (or wave C) indicating the further growth of the pair.




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook for February 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD



The Australian dollar - U. S. Dollar pair, as well as the ounce of gold, once again is very strong, The aussie is trading at level 1.0772 and continuous the movement within the range of 200 pips, as it is evident in the yellow box. It provides the signs that the trend is likely to change and acquire the greater intensity.



As it is indicated on the chart, the Australian dollar is in the stage of stagnation though we believe that it will remain there for a short time. Therefore, we recommend sell-deals around the weekly R_1 at 1.0800 level. In case of a pullback sell-deals on weekly R_2 1.0920 with targets seen at the support level 1.0484 are recommended.
On the other hand, the range indicator is providing the overbuy signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com





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GBP/USD Buy Above Pivot Point, February 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD



The GDP /USD pair has failed to close the Friday’s deals above its 200 day moving average. This is the third attempt made by the pair. Given that the pair remains above the weekly pivot point, the upward trend is likely to continue. And the moving average of 200 periods is passed through, the psychological level 1.6060 will be considered as next target.



It is necessary to be cautious with bullish positions. The situation will probably change abruptly and it is possible that the pair will move within a correction to the area 1.5712 S_1. The best position for setting Stop-loss is below the weekly pivot point around 1.5810.

The Momentum indicator provides bullish signals.





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com
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